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,Treasury 07082021

THE second quarter of 2021 economic growth will be announced next Friday. This time around, the domestic economy is expected to turn around for the first time since the second quarter of 2020 where the economy collapsed by 17.1% year-on-year – the worst contraction since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

The poor economic performance since the second quarter of 2020 is primarily due to Covid-19 which was declared as a pandemic on March 11, 2020 by the World Health Organisation.

Most countries around the globe, including Malaysia, embarked on unprecedented measures i.e imposing movement control orders (MCOs) to contain the virus. Such restrictive measures had led to a severe disruption to the global supply chain affecting demand and caused a spike in unemployment.

Since then, the domestic economy has been on the negative growth trajectory for four consecutive quarters until the first quarter of 2021.

Malaysia reported a slower first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 0.5% year-on-year despite the imposition of MCO 2.0 from Jan 13 to Feb 18, 2021 with an estimated cost of around RM300mil to RM400mil a day.

The relaxation of MCO 2.0, rollout of vaccinations, healthy external demand, firm commodity prices, stimulus measures unveiled in 2020 which amounted to RM305bil, were complemented by additional stimulus measures such as Permai on Jan 18, 2021 worth RM15bil and Permerkasa Plus on March 17, 2021 which amounted to RM20bil.

The total stimulus package of RM340bil or 24% of GDP had cushioned the downside pressure as well as lifted the economic data in March.

How will the domestic economy perform in the second quarter of 2021?

The rising cases of Covid-19 have caused a sea of red to the domestic economy. The government imposed a nationwide MCO, which is defined as MCO 3.0, in a move to contain the virus.

Despite the lockdown and rising speed of vaccinations, the number of cases continued to be high.

The estimated revenue loss per day from MCO 3.0 is said to be about RM1bil. The country lost RM2.4bil daily during MCO 1.0 and the figure fell to RM300mil daily during MCO 2.0 after more economic sectors were allowed to operate.

Looking at the second quarter GDP performance, the domestic economy is expected to turn around for the first time since the sharp contraction in the second quarter of 2020.

We foresee Malaysia’s second quarter GDP growth to match Singapore’s (+14.3% year-on-year) performance.

But compared with the previous quarter, Singapore has reported a contraction of 2%.

However, Malaysia’s GDP is likely to grow at a single-digit high of 9% on the lower end but more likely to hover between 11% and 13% based on the current set of economic data. And compared with the previous quarter, the economy could report a contraction. The upside to growth is being dented by MCO 3.0.

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