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HONG KONG - Too big to fail or too tough to save? As China's debt-laden No. 2 property developer lurched from one crisis to another in recent months its creditors, investors, suppliers, and bankers agonised over its fate with little hope on the horizon.
But industry watchers say clear signs are now emerging that authorities at various levels are stepping in to avoid a hard landing for China Evergrande Group, amid worries about the "social impact" of a possible collapse that could cascade through the country's financial system.
"Its huge balance sheet will have a real domino effect on China," said Nomura chief China economist Lu Ting. "If financial institutions lose money, they'll tighten credit to other companies and sectors."
Evergrande, whose debt has swelled to 1.95 trillion yuan ($301 billion), more than the gross domestic product (GDP) of Finland, is also set to accelerate asset sales to raise cash, company sources and analysts said.
Concerns intensified in June when the developer failed to pay some commercial paper on time. Since then, its stock price has nosedived, its bonds have been cut into "junk" territory, and a growing number of suppliers have filed lawsuits to recover overdue payments.
After having refrained from showing signs of bailing out the embattled privately-owned developer, Chinese regulators summoned senior company executives last week and issued a rare warning that it needs to reduce its debt risks and prioritise stability.
It's becoming increasingly clear now, analysts said, that Beijing needs to safeguard suppliers and their employees, in addition to home buyers, to ensure social stability, and policymakers may prioritise them over creditors.
Banks have been instructed to roll over Evergrande's maturing loans, two sources with knowledge of the matter said, and many news reports on its woes have been removed from the internet.
Those moves, coupled with the decision that a single court in Guangdong province will centrally handle lawsuits against Evergrande across the country, are the clearest signs yet that authorities are co-ordinating efforts, analysts said.
Guangdong is the company's home base and the firm has been reported at various times to be in stake sale talks with various local government arms and companies there.
Evergrande did not respond to a request for comment.
According to financial news and data provider REDD, the government of Guangdong province is seeking feedback from Evergrande Group's major banks about forming a creditor committee for the developer, two sources briefed by bankers said. The government initiated the discussions with the banks last week and has yet to make a decision on such a move, which could pave the wave for a restructuring.
Evergrande has 200,000 of its own staff, but it provides employment to 3.8 million people in the country, including construction workers, according to its website.